Father and Son

Consider hockey’s Foligno family – Mike and his sons, Nick and Marcus. Growing up in Sudbury, Ontario, I’m uniquely aware of the careers of this trifecta of rugged forwards. Respected locally for their pride in our community, the Folignos are a first-class family by all accounts. Better yet, they also provide an exceptional illustration of the impact the NHL’s evolution has had between generations.

Focusing on Mike and eldest son Nick, the pages of the NHL-record book detail their careers as follows:

MIKE FOLIGNO vs. NICK FOLIGNO, CAREER TOTALS

Foligno	NHL Career	GP	G	A	PTS
Mike	1979-1994	1,018	355	372	727
Nick	2007-2021	957	203	283	486
Difference		+61	+152	+89	+241

Following a spectacular 150-point season with the OHL’s Sudbury Wolves, Mike jumped immediately to the Detroit Red Wings, finishing as runner-up to Ray Bourque in Calder Trophy voting. Mike’s 15-season NHL career opened with an impressive decade-long string of 20-goal seasons, peaking with a 41-goal, 80-point outburst in 1985-86.  A talented scorer and frequent visitor to the penalty box, Mike remains known for his leaping goal celebrations and unique helmet style.

Born at the start of his father’s age-29 season, Nick, a late first-round pick of the Ottawa Senators, is in his fifteenth NHL season. Winner of the King Clancy Memorial Trophy for humanitarian contributions in 2017, he is known as an aggressive middle-six forward on the ice and a leader on all surfaces. Nick’s 2014-15 season (31 goals, 73 points) remain his hallmark year. Through 2020-21, he trails his father substantially by 152 goals and 89 assists; Nick will not approach his old man’s career totals.

Looking at their careers in terms of an average full NHL season, we observe the following:

MIKE FOLIGNO vs. NICK FOLIGNO, SINGLE-SEASON RATES

Foligno	G/82 GP	A/82 GP	PTS/82 GP	30+ G	60+ PTS
Mike	29	30	59	5	5
Nick	17	24	42	1	1
Difference	+12	+6	+17	+4	+4

An average Mike Foligno season equates to 29 goals and 59 points, while an average Nick Foligno season consists of 17 goals and 42 points – the father earning about 40% more points per season than the son. In terms of in-season milestones, Mike also bests Nick 5-to-1 in both 30-goal and 60-point seasons. By any possible measure in the NHL’s accounting of performance, Mike comfortably grades as a superior offensive player to Nick. It’s not particularly close at first glance.

Anecdotally, we understand goals were more frequent during Mike’s career, the 1980s being a decade known for high scores and frustrated goaltenders. But to what extent? Let’s have a look at total goals per game during their respective NHL careers. Focusing solely on the timelines of Mike and Nick, we carve out the following snapshot.

NHL AVERAGE TOTAL GOALS PER GAME, 1979-80 TO 2020-21

In seasons where Mike skated in at least 50 games, NHL games averaged between 6.92 and 8.02 goals per game; in Nick’s career, he has yet to play in a single season in which the league averaged six goals per game. Incredibly, the top offensive season from Mike’s career (1981-82) featured over 1.5 times as many goals per game as the floor season in Nick’s career (2012-13). While we’ve yet to explore the depth of the disparity in NHL scoring, the results of their neutralized statistics are staggering.

In fact, there is almost no difference between the Foligno’s career point totals.

Yes, that’s correct. Mike, author of 355 goals, 727 points, owner of 10 straight 20-goal seasons, and a 40-goal, 80-point man at his best, produced points at a rate similar to Nick, who only recently inched across the 200-goal threshold and is still in pursuit of 500 career points at age 34.

MIKE FOLIGNO vs. NICK FOLIGNO, CAREER ADJUSTED TOTALS

Foligno	NHL Career	GP	G	A	PTS
Mike	1979-1994	1,039	286	301	587
Nick	2007-present	1,023	232	320	552
Difference		+16	+54	-19	+35

MIKE FOLIGNO vs. NICK FOLIGNO, SINGLE-SEASON ADJUSTED RATES

Foligno	G/82 GP	A/82 GP	PTS/82 GP	30+ G	60+ PTS
Mike	23	24	46	2	2
Nick	19	26	44	1	1
Difference	+4	-2	+2	+1	+1

After adjustments, Mike’s goal scoring lead plummets from 159 to 54; in assists, Nick has surpassed him in 16 fewer games. When we look at in-season scoring rates, Mike’s previous 12-goal, 6-assist per season lead shrinks dramatically; an 82-game Mike season now reads 23 goals and 24 assists, and Nick is bumped up to 19 goals and 26 assists. After we put these two rugged wingers in the same era, Mike goes from accruing 17 points per season more than his son to holding a measly two points per season edge.

This exercise shifts the perspective of how father and son are viewed as offensive players. If Nick can notch around 35 points beyond 2020-21, he’ll surpass his father’s career point total in a neutral environment. When we look at their signature seasons, the results after adjustments are equally remarkable.

MIKE FOLIGNO vs. NICK FOLIGNO, BEST SEASON

Foligno	Age	Season	G	A	PTS	AdG	AdA	AdPTS
Mike	27	1985-86	41	39	80	32	31	63
Nick	27	2014-15	31	42	73	35	46	81
Difference			+10	-3	+7	-3	-15	-18

Dad’s peak goal count initially shows a 10-goal lead (i.e. 41-31). After adjustment? 35-32 Son. An incredible 13-goal pivot. Meanwhile, Mike’s peak of 80 points drops to just 63 points in our adjusted space, while Nick’s rises to 81 – a swing of 25 points! Contextualized, Nick Foligno in 2014-15 becomes a greater season in every way than Mike Foligno in 1985-86.

This is logical in hindsight – Nick tied for 10th in the league in points that season, whereas Mike finished 31st in the scoring race. The NHL’s history books, however, have no interest in hindsight, plainly stating the raw numbers. Fortunately, Adjusted Hockey’s books are malleable and will exclusively present a level playing field.

So how did we arrive at the Folignos revised scoring totals? Hockey Reference’s four adjustments are:

1. Goal environment
2. Assist environment
3. Schedule length
4. Roster size

The following pages of the Adjusted Statistics section of this site will walk through each of the four context-based adjustments. While the adjustments themselves are not complex, these pages serve to further explain and validate the concepts. Most importantly, we will explore NHL history with a data-driven look at how its evolution has changed the statistical archive that remains central to the sport today.

Adjusted GP data from Adjusted Hockey;
All other data from Hockey-Reference.com.